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<\/a><\/p>\nWho will win the streaming wars? Although it is smaller players like Spotify and MOG that have disrupted the file download model, Gieger says that giant platforms with over 500 million customers will dominate the next decade. He mentions Facebook, YouTube, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Yahoo, Pandora, Apple iTunes, Baidu, Android (note that Google appears three times in this list).<\/p>\n
Why will revenue increase? Subscriptions start cheap and go up, says Gieger. \u201cOnce people have the subscription needle in the arm, it\u2019s very hard to get out, and prices go up.\u201d He envisages premium subscriptions offering offline mode, better quality, extra amounts per family member, access to different mixes and live recordings.<\/p>\n
The implication for the music industry, he says, is that it is necessary to get 100% behind the streaming model. It is where consumers are going, he says, and if you are not there you will miss out. \u201cWe\u2019ve got to get out of the way, we\u2019ve got to support it.\u201d Just as with the introduction of CDs, it enables the business to sell its back catalogue yet again.<\/p>\n
A further implication is that metadata is a big deal. In a streaming world, just as in in any other form of music distribution, enabling discovery is critical to success. Labels should be working hard on metadata clean-up.<\/p>\n
Gieger does see some future for physical media such as CD and DVD, if there is a strong value-add in the form of books and artwork. <\/p>\n
You can see this happening as increasing numbers of expensive super-deluxe packages turn up, complete with books and other paraphernalia. For example, Pink Floyd\u2019s back catalogue was reissued in \u201cImmersion\u201d boxes at high prices; the Wish you were Here package includes 9 coasters, a scarf and three marbles. <\/p>\n
This sort of thing becomes more difficult though as consumers lose the disc habit. If I want to play a VHS video I have to get the machine down from the loft; CD, DVD and Blu-Ray are likely to go the same way.<\/p>\n Geiger\u2019s analysis makes a lot of sense, though his projected future revenues seem to me over-optimistic. People love free, and there is plenty of free out there now, so converting those accustomed to playing what they want from YouTube to a subscription will not be easy.<\/p>\n That is a business argument though. From a technical perspective, the growth of streaming and decline of file download does seem inevitable to me (and has done for a while<\/a>).<\/p>\n Listen to the talk, and it seems obvious that this is why Apple purchased Beats in May 2014. Beats<\/a> offers a streaming music subscription service, unlike iTunes which uses a download model. <\/p>\n Why Apple needed to spend out on Beats rather than developing its own streaming technology as an evolution of iTunes remains puzzling though.<\/p>\n Finally, Gieger notes the need to \u201cput out great music. After we all have access to all the music in the world, the quality bar goes up.\u201d That is one statement that is not controversial.<\/p>\n Here is the complete video:<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n